The Hall of Fame is the crowning achievement of baseball. Despite the subjectivity involved in voting, the less-accomplished players in the hall, and the crowd of deserving players who aren’t in, getting inducted remains every baseball player’s dream.
Many discussions about baseball’s Hall of Fame focus on who should be inducted. Yesterday, I used Bayes’ theorem to ask a different question: who will be inducted?
Baseball players have a limited amount of time to create enough value to be considered eligible for, and possibly get inducted to, the Hall of Fame. We typically measure passage of time by a player’s age, and we typically measure a player’s value by WAR.
For these reasons, I began assessing a player’s Hall of Fame chances by understanding:
- How old they are
- How much WAR they’ve accumulated through that age
To complete the analysis, I added one more data point: the player’s position.
Read the full analysis at Beyond the Box Score.
(This post’s photo by Keith Allison is of the man with the highest chance of any active player to make the Hall. Like it could’ve been anyone else …)